Live Blogging the Screen Actors Guild

7:04 PM Central Time: I personally Love the Actors Intro, love how they call the award show a celebration. My Faves were Carell's, Arnet's and Garber's. Female Actor in a Comedy Show .... predix: Tina Fey.And the Award goes to ..... FEY, not surprinsing to say the least. I was hoping that Applegate would have won tonight, but I wont deny being an amid fan of 30 Rock. God Fey is on fire, as she always is love the whole Barack Obama anecdocte "when did looking like a famous politician become a good thing"

Best Comedy In a Comedy Series: My Predix: Carrell, he has never won before and is ,most probably saught out as overdue and the award goes to Alec Baldwin ... coarse, 3o Rock must win all of the categories their nominate him.

Ok, so i totally missed what that whole montage was about? Can anyone tell me what that was all about?

Best Ensemble Cast Telivision Comedy goes to ..... 30 Rock, didnt have time to Predict, but isnt this the most predictable race of the year. Good, the Television awards are booring

Thirty Minutes to go, very interesting night if you ask me. Just noticed on E! that Sean Penn showed his face tonight, something tells me he knows he's going to finally win his first Actor tonight. If you recall he lost the Best Actor award for Dead Man Walking to Nicolas Cage for Leaving LAs Vegas, he los the 2002 Best Actor award to I Am Sam to Russell Crowe for A Beautiful Mind; in 2004 he lost the Best Actor award to Johnny Depp for Pirates of the Carribbean and the Best Ensemble award (for Mystic River) to Lord of the Rings: Return of the King. One 0f the real reasons why the Oscar seasons is so exiting isnt due to the quality of the contenders but rather, due to the competitiveness. The night's only lock is Ledger of course. I guess this is the best segway to my actual predictions, I only have for Minutes to go, so only the picks for now and I'll include analysis throughout the night.

FILM:
Ensemble: Milk (alt: Benjamin Button
Actor: Sean Penn, Milk (alt: Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler)
Actress: Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married (Alt: Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road)
Sup Actor: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight (alt: Josh Brolin, Milk)
Sup Actress: Kate Winslet, The Reader (alt: Viola Davis, Doubt)
Stunt Work: The Dark Knight (alt: Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Chrystal Skull)

Television stuff later

Thoughts and Prediction on Tonight's Broadcast Film Critics Awards

I guess it is time for me to resurrect Northern Oscar Lights. Don't ask me what happened, work, school and personal stuff, i guess I lost track of time yadda, yadda yadda. Anyways, awards season's almost over, its kind of a weird sensation for me. (Best Picture ramblings to follow) Everything seems set stone, as is always does at this time of year. I felt kinda shaky on The Dark Knight's prospects, but since the Guilds (more specifically the Directors, Producers and Writers guild) victoriously embraced the film, the film seems locked in loaded, for a nomination, at the very least. Don't ask me why, but I'm convinced on Frost/Nixon at the very least, despite the fact that it has a nabbed all of the necesary nominations throughout the season. Maybe, it has to do with the fact that I still haven't had the chance to see the film, but the film's critical reception have not been overwhelming in the very least. Considering the quality of Howard's later films, and given the fact that A Beautiful Mind won both, the best motion picture and the best directorial award back in 2001, doesnt the love associated to Frost/Nixon seem a bit pre-mature. Mostly everyone working on Frost/Nixon (with the exeption of Langhella of coarse) seem very much dued. WIERD

Anyways, the Broadcast Film Critics Association Awards are presented tonight live on VH1. The Association was founded in 1995 and is formed by the large margin of film, critics, who work substantially in the field of television broadcasting, radio broadcasting and on the internet. As I said before, the Oscar race is becoming a bit tedious as of late, but here's a quick breakdown of who's winning what tonight.

Best Picture: Slumdog Millionaire
Very Safe bet, Benjamin Button could possibly upset here (the film is Slumdog Millionaire's biggest compertition) thow I Strongly doubt it, despite it being a grand affair. The Shot in the dark out of nowhere possibilities could be if either The Wrestler, Milk or The Dark Knight taking home the prize. Highly unlikely, yet I would personally adore it, any of those films deserve the tital more then the two fronrunners.

Best Actor: Sean Penn
50/50, either it being Penn or Rourke. On a second thought the later could easily win this, but something tells me that Pennn has more love in the industry, and will squeeze through the cracks. I'll talk more about the Penn/Rourke Best Actor Race later Next week

Best Actress: Anne Hathaway
Wierdly enticing considering that neither Hawkins nor Winslet made the cut. My hate for everything Changeling is prombly clouding my vision, but does anyone consider Jolie's Performance anything more then skin deep? Blanchett has been snubbed everywhere else and Bekinsale's film wasnt sucessfully distributed, so both of them are out of the race. This leaves us with either Hathaway, Leo and Streep. Out of sheer boredom, I wouldn't be surprised if Streep wins this, but god i hope not. I was originally going to predict Leo with the win, but I'm sad to admit that I dont have the balls to do so. Realistically the possiblity of Leo upsetting tonight, isnt that far off base. The actress has remained steady throughout the award season, winning multitude of critical awards. Hathaway's film is equally as small as Leo's (Rachel Getting Married grossed 10 million, in comparisions to Frozen River's 2 million dollards gross).

Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger
Mark My Words, Brolin has a strong chance, and i mean STRONG, in winning tonight. Brolin has not only critical praized, but industry love on his side. Brolin has made a name for himself in the past two years, following a succesion of six stellar consiquetive film performances. His drunken scene with Penn is still resonating, due to the fact that Brolin inhibits so much humanity, into a role that could of possibly been a two dimentional fillm portrayal. Yet, the truth is, the BFCA will want to award TDK somewheres, and there's not many possible ulternatives of award it elsewhere.

Best Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz
Nough said, not even Davis's stellar two scene extended cameo can match Cruz's frontrunner position. Will the BFCA want to award Winslet this year thow?

Best Acting Ensemble: Milk
The Dark Knight upset ?!?! .... wouldnt it be divine. I don't see any other possibility, even if Doubt has a couple of critic awards in this category under its belt.


Best Director: Gus Van Sant
No guts, no glory, Boyle's been sweeping these awards all season long, but why doesnt it feel like its his time. That goes without saying that Boyle does the he can to flurish Slumdog Millionaire. Does hollywood insiders really know the Boyle's filmotography post Trainspotting.

Best Screenplay: Simon Beaufroy, Slumdog Millionaire

Best Animated Feature: WALL-E
Lock

Best Young Actor: Dev Petal
Fanning's nomination is due to the fact,m that the BFCA feel oblidge to nominate her every year (she'll be back next year either for Push or Winged Creatures). Walter's has no chance ocnsidering the hate Australis's been getting; Kross is well ...... terrible.

Best Action Film: The Dark Knight
If Hell freezes over, Iron Man could possibly upset

Best Comedy Movie: Vicky Cristina Barcelona

TV Movie: Recount
Foreign Film: Gamorrah
Documentary: Man on a Wire

Song: "The Wrestler" Bruce Springsteen
Yet Jaiho is a sensation in its own right, and Miley Cirus will draw viewers

Original Score: Alexander Desplate

Oscar 2008 Predics

Best Picture

Atonement – Globes, BAFTA
Juno -- Satelite
No Country For Old Men – PGA, SAG, NBR, Broadcast, Satellites, Various Critical Awards
Michael Clayton
There Will Be Blood – Various Critical Awards

To call this a closed race is something of a understatement despite Atonement’s Globes upset and the fear of boredom settling into the race (but we’ll talk about that later). The category’s frontrunner, No Country For Old Men, has taken center stage ever since its Cannes Film Festival in May 2007. Helmed and penned by veteran independent filmmakers , Ethan and Joel Cohen, the film created a cultural firestorm, winning the vast majority of the season’s awards. The film seemed locked and loaded for the big win after taking home four major Guild awards – SAG, DGA, PGA, WAG --- the industries overall approval signifies the love and respect attributed towards the film. While this sudden leap ahead has solidified the film’s chances, most are in doubt, of a relentless need for a major upset. If we look at the 2005 Oscar Race, where hence Brokeback Mountain was an even greater frontrunner (which swept all awards with the exception of the SAG ensemble), lost to Crash which had the upset momentum. Mixed with this momentum is the studios relentless pursuit for the goal. Where hence in the past, heads would throw in the towel at the most opportune moment, everyone in the game is trying to pull an upset out of there hat. The foreseeable alternate, There Will Be Blood is riding the “Milkshake” phenomenon; Juno might have a chance, if the Academy wants to seem more relevant to youngsters; Michael Clayton and Atonement is exploiting the fact that its based on an old Oscar Seasoned genre (Clayton the old political thriller ala All the President’s Men; Atonement the old British prestige Merchant/Ivory Period Piece ala Howards End). Despite the need for an upset, its still very unlikely that No Country would loose. Perfectly shot by DP Roger Deakins, the film is a powerfully edited thrill ride that never lets go. Many movie goers are thrilled by the film, while film buffs are raving the Coen’s audacity in ending the films such an offbeat matter (its like they dropped the Ball twenty minutes before its finale). If any of the nominees have as much followers as No Country it’s Juno and There Will Be Blood, but I wouldn’t put my money on either films, generally because Blood is a very small film and Juno’s exposure overshadows the fact that there’s no precedent in its favour.

Who Will Win: No Country for Old Men
Who Should Win: There Will Be Blood
Who Should Have Been Nominates: Assasination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford

Best Director:

Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood – LA Film Critics, NY Online Film Critics, Various Critical Awards
Ethan and Joel Cohen, No Country for Old Men – DGA, Broadcast, BAFTA, Online Critics, NY Film Critics, Various Critical Awards
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Jason Reitman, Juno
Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and Butterfly – Globes, Cannes Film Fest, Kansas and Boston Critic awards

The race has come down to three ponies. The Coens Brothers, whose film No Country for Old Men is my Best Picture Predict, Diving Bell and Butterfly is Director Schnabel’s big breakthrough and There Will Be Blood is director’s Anderson’s career’s best. Its easy to discard Reitman (whose sole nomination purpose is to rise the count for Juno) and Gilroy (who has a long career ahead of him). Now, the three directors in play all face problems, most surprisingly, the Coens Brothers. They’re running in for categories – picture, director, screenplay and editing – but the difficulty is to see which one they will loose or will they win all four. The only precedent for a four time win in a single year, back in 1953, Walt Disney took home four Oscars for producing three short subjects winners and a documentary win. But I’m more inclined to them loosing editing (to Bourne Ultimatum) or Screenplay (to Diving Bell and Butterfly). To say that There Will Be Blood is Anderson’s best film especially after Boogie Nights and Magnolia, is a great feat. The film is to 2007 what American films like Boogie Nights, Chinatown, The Searchers and The Treasure of the Sierra Madre were to their own respective years. While Schnabel is the year’s breakthrough – despite directing the 2000 Oscar Nominated Before Night Fall – gaining the newcomer buzz, maintaining a very important win at the Globes. But lack of acclaim elsewhere might falter him.

Who Will Win: Ethan and Joel Cohen, No Country for Old Men
Who Should Win: TBD (Haven’t sceen
Who Should Have Been Nominated: David Fincher, Zodiac

Best Actor in a Leading Role

George Clooney, Michael Clayton – NBR, various critical Awards
Daniel Day Lewis, There Will Be Blood – Globes, SAG, BAFTA, Broadcast, National Society of Film Critics, NY Film Critics, LA Film Critics, Various Critical Awards
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd: The Devil barber of Flint Street -- GLOBES
Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah
Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises – British Independentm Satellites

Is there anyone out there thinking that Daniel Day-Lewis can loose Best Actor this year? Tom O’Neil is putting precursors to the test, picking under rewarded Clooney to upset. Clooney has the advantage of being the newly crowned king of Hollywood, the Era’s Frank Sanatra. Most importantly Clooney is downgrading his Hollywood persona, this work is more character actor, then Hollywood Superstar. Mortensen’s Nikolai is a career’s best, outdoing his work in History of Violence. This would be the opertune moment to award Mortensen, not only has he never been better, chances are he never will again. While I can’t denie that Clooney and Mortensen are both worthy, they don’t have the momentum or the performance aquivilant to Day-Lewis. Mortensen sole advantage over the two is the fact that he’s yet to be honoured, but he’s also yet to be previously nominated.

Who Will Win: Daniel Day Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Who Should Win: Daniel Day Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Sam Riley, Control and Ryan Gosling, Lars and the Real Girls

Best Actress:
Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: the Golden Age
Julie Christie, Away From Her – SAG, Globes, NBR, Broadcast, National Society of Film Critics, Online Film Critics, New York Film Critics, Various Film Critics
Marion Cortillard, La Vie En Rose – Globes, Hollywood Award, Satelites, LA Film Critics, BAFTA, Kansas and Boston Film Critics
Laura Linney, The Savages
Ellen Page, Juno – Satellites, Various Film Critics

Once again we’re dealing with a three pony race. Hollywood veteran and Oscar Winner (for her performance in 1965’s Darling) Julie Christie gives a brilliantly subtle portrait of Alzeimers in Sarah Polley’s Away From Her. French newcomer Marion Cortillard make a uncanny Edith Piaf in the biopic La Vie en Rose. She escapes mimicry, by transcending into the heart and strugglers of Piaf While Canuck native Ellen Page gave a very attractive performance as teenage misfit and self titled Huno. I’m no fan of the film’s screenplay, its terribly overwritten, and it depicts Juno as a cruel Selfish and irritating teenager. Throughout the season Hollywood has been open arms towards Christie, a former 60s sex pot, whose comeback has been appreciated by most film lovers and biz insiders. Her first nomination in a decade (1997’s Afterglow), the actress has been out of sight with the exception of epics Troy and Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Askaban and Oscar Pony Finding Neverland. Despite it being one of the most loaded races of the night, I put my money on Christie. Yes Cortillard performance is miraculous and the she does fit both molds, that of actors playing real life figures and that of the Academy rewarding young pretty things. But she’s not getting as much attention in America compared to her attention in Europe. While Page on the other side has a whole career ahead of her, and I doubt that anyone would have the need to vote for her so early in her career.

Who Will Win: Julie Christie, Away From Her
Who Should Win: TBD (Haven’t scene The Savages)
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Nicole Kidman, Margo and the Wedding

Best Supporting Actor
Cassey Affleck, The Assasination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford – NBR, Satelites, National Society of Film Critics, Critic Awards
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men – SAG, Globes, Broadcast, Bafta, New York Film Critics, LA Film Critics, a Shitload of critical awards
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson’s War –
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton – Satellite

This race is simple, Bardem for the Gold. There’s no need for analysis, he won all major procurers and his Anton Chigurch is one of the most menacing villains in the history of cinema. Yes Wilkinson has the Michael Clayton love and Hallbrook is an endearing Hollywood veteran, but neither have a snowball in hell chance of winning. This might be the nights easiest bet.

Who Will Win: Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Who Should Win: Cassey Affleck, Assasination of Jesse James
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Steve Zahn, Rescue Dawn

Best Supporting Actress

Cate Blanchett, I’m Not There – Globes, Venice Film Fest, Various Critical Awards
Ruby Dee, American Gangster – SAG,
Saoirse Ronan, Atonement
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone – NBR, Broadcast, Online Film Crix, New York Film Critics, L.A. Film Critics, Various other Critic Awards
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton – BAFTA, Various other Critic Awards

The most mind boggling and most exciting race of the night. Pre ordained year in advance buzz helped Cate Blanchett’s variation of cult signer Bob Dylan in Todd Haynes’s I’m Not There. The most precise of the Dylan performers, Blanchett continues what is to date of the most impressive careers of contemporary cinema. Tilda Swinton achieves so much with so little screen time in Tony Gilroy’s Michael Clayton. Better known for her board meeting rehearsal scenes, Swinton puts much depth and spin to a could have been predictable villainous role. Rudy Dee is this year glorified cameo role player as Denzel’s mom in American Gangster. If Dee ends up winning its solely based on her endearing career. With a career that last over sixty years, and married to the late Ossie Davis (one of the most patriotic of the African American movement), Dee is way overdue for some career recognition. Ryan seems more or less ordained to become the typical critical darling that fails for no apparent reason. Ronan seems to have the same problem as Page, despite the Academy’s history of awarding child actors in this category. That being said, we’re now left with four active contenders. Blanchett with the year in advance buzz, Dee with the career recognition factor, Swinton seems to be the ideal way of awarding Michael Clayton and Ryan as the critical darling. That being said I’m favoring Dee who ever since her win at the Screen Actors Guild Awards has had a momentum of buzz


Who Will Win: Ruby Dee, American Gangsters
Who Should Win: Saorise Ronan, Atonement
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Charlotte Gunsburgh, I’m Not There
Best Original Screenplay: Diablo Cody, Juno
Best Adaptive Screenplay: Ronald Harwood, The Diving Bell and Butterfly
Animated Film: Ratatouille
Art Direction: Sweeney Todd
Cinematography: There Will Be Blood
Costume Design: Atonement
Documentary Feature: No End in Sight
Documentary Short: Sari’s Mother
Film Editing: Bourne Ultimatum
Foreign Film: The Counterfeiters
Makeup: La Vie En Rose
Original Score : Atonement
Original Song : « Falling Slowly » Once
Short Film Animated: Peter and the Wolf
Short Film live Action: Le Mozart des Pickpockets
Sound Editing: No Country for Old Men
Sound Mixing: The Bourne Ultimatum
Visual Effects: Transformers

Oscar Standing

Best Picture
Atonement is everything that a solidified Oscar Frontrunner normally is: large in scope, deep in meeting and met with a great ensemble of actors; No Country and There will be Blood will ride off the wonderful careers of its helmers, who despite hitting their stride in the 90’s; Elah isn’t the most favoured film of the season, but its supporters are strong; Before the Devil… seems to be hitting its stride at the right moment; while Clayton, Charlie Wilson’s War (if people start talking about it) and American Gangster seem to be all the right stuff for the Oscar season.

1. Atonement
2. No Country for Old Men
3. There Will Be Blood
4. Michael Clayton
5. Before The Devil Knows Your Dead
6. American Gangster
7. In The Valley of Elah
8. The Savages
9. Charlie Wilson’s War
10. The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Howard Ford

Best Director
Let’s just get this out of the way: Ceons, Ander and Wright are all euqaly (and pretty) safe. Lumet is a vet and has strong ties with the Academy; Scott’s overdue big time and the film is bait (even if the film’s not safe); Haynes & Dominik seems like the most probable lone director nom, but the film’s way out there Academy wise; Burton & Nichols could be considered if their films become worthy: De Palma is getting the best raves since Carlito’s Way.

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
2. The Coen Brothers, No Country for Old Men
3. Joe Wright, Atonement
4. Sidney Lumet, Before the Devil Knows Your Dead
5. Ridley Scott, American Gangster
6. Todd Haynes, I’m Not There
7. Tim Burton, Sweeney Todd
8. Brian De Palma, Redacted
9. Mike Nichols, Charlie Wilson’s War
10. Andrew Dominik, Assasination of Jesse James


Best Actor
Day Lewis is considered to be one best actors of the generation and he seems to be at his best form; Tommy Lee Jones is getting raves and nothing less for his performance ina film that’s not getting as much praise; McAvory and Washington will ride to coattails of their movies (their both supposedly giving solid perfs; Into the Wild is totally on Hirsh’s shoulders ; Mortensen & Conenberg didn’t work last time, but they keep getting raves for their work; Benicio somewhere in limbo between lead and supporting; Riley’s giving one of the most praised performances of the year; Hoffman seems to be having a hell of a year.

2. Daniel Day Lewis, There Will Be Blood
2. Tommy Lee Jones, In The Valley of Elah
3. James McAvory, Atonement
4. George Clooney, Michael Clayton
5. Denzel Washington, American Gangster
6. Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises
7. Emile Hirsh, Into the Wild
8. Philip Seymour Hoffman, Before the Devil Knows Your Dead
9. Benicio Del Toros, Things We Lost In The Fire
10. Sam Riley, Control

Best Actress
Knightley (terrific or not) is locked up, she’s starring in the front running film; Christie has gotten the best reviews out of any performer this year; Linney is overdue and word is that she’s great in the Savages; Cortillard & Foster are both savaging was is said to be a terrible films (will that hurt them); Kidman’s character is said to be a monster; Blenchett is getting inferior comparisons to her 1998 performance; High Profilers Berry and Jolie are hoping their celebrity will improve their chances; while Page is the Toronto breakthrough.

1. Kiera Knightley, Atonement
2. Julie Christie, Away From Her
3. Laura Linney, The Savages
4. Marion Cortillard. La Vie En Rose
5. Nicole Kidman, Margot and the Wedding
6. Jodie Foster, The Brave One
7. Cate Blanchett, A Golden Age
8. Halle berry, Things Lost in the Fire
9. Ellen Page, Juno
10. Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart

Best Supporting Actor
Bardem is the undisputed frontrunner people are already calling him iconic in the role; Ruffalo is way overdue, and seems stable despite the lack of support for the film; Dano is definetly becoming one of the best actors of his generation (this is supposed to be his best); Hoffman has bait roles in three serious Oscar films; Brosco seems to be taking this year’s vet spot ; Brolin seems to be this years John C Reilly; Affleck is having his breakout year; Zahn gave the best supporting performance of the first half; Wilkinson is bait and the film is rising at the best time; HAlbrook is one of the films stoandouts.

1. Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
2. Paul Dano, There Will Be Blood
3. Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton
4. Cassey Affleck, The Assasination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
5. Philip Brosco, The Savages
6. Hal Holbrook, Into The Wild
7. Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson’s War
8. Josh Brolin, No Country for Old Men
9. Mark Ruffalo, Reservation Road
10. Steve Zahn, Rescue Dawn

Best Supporting Actor
Blanchett is (at this point) the undisputable frontrunner noyone is begin buzzed as much as her palying Bob Dylan; if Margot flies Leigh might have it in her to become serious competition for the Great Cate; The similarities between Ryan’s character and Madeleine McCann will heightened her visibility; Ronan is something of a milestone in Atonement and they love to award young actors in this category; Morton is a reliable name in a critical darling; Thomei’s something of a wildcard, riding her film’s coattails; Redgrave is said to be grand, but also short; Carter & Roberts really need their ponnies to start moving up the tract; McDonald is playing the academy loving role of the long suffering wife; as is Sarandon.

1. Cate Blanchett, I’m Not There
2. Jennifer Jason Leigh, Margot and the Wedding
3. Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
4. Saoirse Ronan, Atonement
5. Samantha Morton, Control
6. Marisa Thomei, Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead
7. Venessa Redgrave, Atonement
8. Kelly McDonald, No Country for Old Men
9. Julia Roberts, Charlie Wilson’s War
10. Susan Sarandon, In The Valley of Elah

Best Original Screenplay
Juno is the perfect Original Screenplay contender, it smeels like LMS; Clayton seems like an unbeatable force; For Before the Devil … to become a Best Picture contender, a screenplay nomination is a must; The Savages seems like its going to make the grade; if the Incredibles got a screenplay nom, Ratatioulle will; Lars & Margo seem to be in Juno & Savages Shadows; Once is getting big notices, but its also really, really small; Few people find Eastern Promises is as good as History of Violence

1. Juno
2. Michael Clayton
3. The Savages
4. Before The Devil Knows Your Dead
5. Ratatouille
6. Margo and the Wedding
7. Lars and the Real Girl
8. Once
9. Eastern Promises
10. Knocked Up

Best Adapted Screenplay
BP frontrunners Atonement, There will be … and No Country … are all going mano the mano; CWW is the current filler; Diving Bell & Away From Her will pull on their heart strings; Chlora is a classic novel and the adaptation might just be right up the Academy’s ally; Into the Wild & Elah are getting mixed reception, but their not completely out of the question; American Gangster is going to be big, but how big?

1. Atonement
2. There will Be Blood
3. No Country for Old Men
4. The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
5. Charlie’s Wilson War
6. Away From Her
7. Love in the Time of Chlora
8. Into the Wild
9. American Gangster
10. In the Valley for Elah

Best Supporting Actress

The supporting race is always at the same time, the most easiest and hardest race to predict. Most of the time they usually go for the flashy perfs, the type of perf that steals the film (Catherine Zeta Jones in 2002’s Chicago, Amy Adams in 2005’s Junebug, Cate Blanchett in 2004’s The Aviator), the long suffering wife roles, (Jennifer Connolly in 2001’s A Beautiful Mind, Julianne Moore in 2002’s The Hours, Marcia Gay Harden in 2000’s Pollock). It is a category where there’s the usual co stars go head to head ( Babel, Chicago, Gosford Park, Almost Famous, Bullets Over Broadway, The Color Purple, all got double nominations in this category), where the young rising stars get in (Jennifer Hudson, Rinko Kinkuchi, Kate Hudson, Amy Adams, Anna Paquin) as do the old (Meryl Streep, Helen Mirren, Maggie Smith, Gloria Stuart). But it is often difficult picking the right players half or a full year in advance.

Looking back at the past six months, the best supporting actress is the slowest to unfold. The strongest female supporting performance of the year is without a doubt Leslie Mann, who plays the desperate but hopeful housewife to the also desperate Paul Rudd, in Judd Apatow’s Knocked Up. I strongly doubt Mann or the film itself will find much success, its clearly too raunchy for the Academy’s taste, thow last year’s screenplay nom for Borat might just open the door for Knocked Up if it stays as fresh as its at this stage in the race).


Meryl Streep has an explicable track record, with over fourteen nominations, including 2 wins (Sophie’ Choice and Kramer vs. Kramer), she’s currently renowned as the greatest living actress. The actress appears in four qualifying films, two of which, she’s getting major buzz. She co-stars with Robert Redford and Tom Cruise in Redford’s political Drama, Lions for Lambs, in which Streep plays a journalist caught in the whole afganistan debate. The other possible contender is another political drama, Rendition co starring Jake Gyllenhaal, Reese Witherspoon Alan Arkin and Peter Sarsgaard. Not sure yet if the role is going to qualify, yet we can never doubt Streep.

Jennifer Jason Leigh seems to be having a great career comeback this year. 20+ years of being overdue, is in her favour, adding to the fact that she has the film’s battiest role of the film. Directed by hubby Noah Baumback, Leigh is getting all of buzz, stealing scenes from once adored Nicole Kidman and terribly underated Jack Black. The trailer indicated to me that Leigh is the central emotional ark of the film (Kidman looks really stiff), which is always a strong advantage when it comes to supporting actresses.

Susan Sarandon, has gotten lucky with the academy in the past, with a win for Dead Man Walking and nominations for Atlantic City, Thelma Louise and The Client. She’s now well known one of the great actresses of the 90s, but hasn’t had that much luck in the race. With the exeption of critic awards for her role in 02’s Igby Goes Down, she been dead in the water. Films like Stepmom, Moonlight Mile, Twilight and Elizabethtown, al stired buzz months before opening, but was found dead upon arrival. Which is why I’m sceptical with her performance in, In The Valley of Elah, throw it is a bait role. Directed by Crash helmer Paul Haggis, the film is one of the many fall films dealing with the Iraq war, this one details the on going search of Det. Emily Sanders (Charlize Theron) and Hank & Joan Deerfiled (Tommy Lee Jones & Sarandon) looking for their AWOL soldier sun (Jonathan Tucker). I told you it was bait, but its been a very long time since her last nomination.

Romola Garai, is the leading hot young talented actress, of those vying for a spot in this category. Garai is one of the three actresses who play the role of Brirony Tallis, who after observing the affair between her sister (Kiera Knightly) with a servant’s son (James McAvory); accuses him of a crime of which he did not commit, which sets off a epic love story that prolongs threw WW1. While much of the confrontation with McAvory’s character happens when played by younger actress Saoirse Ronan, there’s been a lot of buzz for Garai. She seems to have more screentime and more potent material, then Ronan. Both will have a strong chance this season, Brirony Tallis is one of the fullest characters of the novel, she’s also the central supporting character in the scenario, she’s the cause of all things. There are many young actresses trying to join the big leagues, including the following. Aussie Native Abbie Cornish, while getting many raves and accolades for her roles in indie aussie fare like Summersault and Candy, is blooming into a a young exotic film star (even talk of her being the new Bond Girl). She’s starring alongside Cate Blanchett and Clive Owen, playing the third party between Owen’s Walter Raleigh and Blanchette’s Queen Elizabeth love affair, which has for backdrop, break of the war between England and Spain. Emily Blunt, who after starring apposite Meryl Streep in The Devil Wears Prada, has been the it girl in Hollywood. She’s starring in four films this year, most importantly in Mike Nichol’s Charlie Wilson’s War, alongside another hot young star and a 2005 Oscar nominee, Amy Adams. While I’ve recently been told that Blunt has a small cameo role, it really looks the later will have the upper straw, but that’s speculation at best, we have no indication if Adams has a substantial role that qualifies for the Oscars. She’s also getting competition from another co-star, America’s Sweetheart and Oscar Champ Julia Roberts, who’se career fizzled since her Erin Brochovich win (Confessions of a Dangerous Mind, Mona Lisa’s Smile, please??), but who knows, maybe this will be her and Hanks comeback roles, Mike Nichols did direct her in her best post Brochovich performance.

Talking about comebacks, Mira Sorvino, the one time wonder, who surprisingly burst on the scene back in 95 for her performance as a prostitute mother, whose son happens to be a genius. She took home the Best Supporting Oscar, just beating out Joan Allen as First Lady Pat Nixon in Oliver Stone’s Nixon and Kate Winslet as Marianna Dashwood in Ang Lee’s Jane Austin, who at the time was head to head. Ever since the Oscar, her career has fizzled, with the exception of her role in the cult hit, Romy and Michelle’s High School Reunion, the 90’s coming of age ensemble flick Beautiful Girls and Tim Blake Nelson’s Holocaust film The Grey Zone. Hoping to do what Marisa Tomey did in 2001, Sorvino is doing a comeback of sorts in Terry Geiorge’s Reservation, a gritty drama, in which Sorvino plays the wife to Mark Ruffalo’s Dwight, who is responsible for the death of the son of Ethan and Grace (Joaquin Pheonix and Jennifer Connelly). The academy loves the long suffering wife role.

British actress, Helena Bonham Carter, has had a very interesting and quirky career, that has gotten not only fans but also frequent praise from the critics. With a previous nomination as a high class English women who must break off ties with her one true love to keep her high class status in The Wings of a Dove, a handful of Fanboy loved roles (Fight Club, Planet of the Apes) and a small (but potent) role in the Summer Blockbuster Harry Potter and the Order of the Pheonix, she has the right foot forward towards the Oscar Race. Carter plays Mrs. Lovett, who owns the Meat Pie shop downstairs to Sweeney Todd’s Barberry, in the film Sweeney Todd: The Deemon Barber of Fleet Street. Lovett has a lot of bait scenes in the first act of the film, and this is the source character that earned Angela Lansbury a Tony and Beth Fowler and Patti Lupone noms.

Back in 2003, Evan Rachel Wood had one of the biggest breakouts of any other young star in recent memory. The actress got (undeserved) universal praise and attention as Tracie Louise Freeland, a good girl gone terrible as she meet her new high school peers. At the age of 15, the actress got serious oscar traction, including SAG and Golden Globe nominations, not a small task for a complete newcomer; the same year she co-starred with acting vets Tommy Lee Jones and Cate Blanchett in the highly anticipated, but highly disappointing The Missing, which did not even make a dent on the oscar race. Now she has another bait role as the younger Diana (Uma Thurman plays the older Diana), who in her youth was present at a high school shooting much like the 1999 Columbine shooting. I’m not sure who will have who has the baitiest scenes, Wood present at the shooting; or Thurman weeping in her guilt, but either way it looks that both actresses are going to gain attention for this piece.

Now ladies and gents, these are some of our contenders for best supporting actresses, now here are the rankings: (PS. I forgot to mention Rudy Dee in American Gangster and Kelly Macdonald in No Country for Old Men. Dee seems to be the veteran who gets a nomination in recognition for her longing career; while Macdonald might rode the coattails of No Country of Old Men)

Predicted Nominees
1. Jennifer Jason Leigh, Margot + The Wedding
2. Romola Garai, Atonement
3. Helena Bonham Carter, Sweeney Todd
4. Abbie Cornish A Golden Age
5. Mira Sorvino, Reservation Road

Runner Ups
6. Kelly Macdonald, No Country for Old Men
7. Samantha Morton, A Golden Age
8. Evan Rachel Wood, In Bloom
9. Julia Roberts, Charlie Wilson’s War
10. Amy Adams, Charlie Wilson’s War

Also Contending
11. Susan Sarandon, In the Valley of Elah
12. Cate Blanchett, I’m Not Here
13. Meryl Streep, Lions for Lambs (& Rendition)
14. Saorise Ronan, Atonement
15. Rudy Dee, American Gangster

Don’t Count Them Out
16. Kristen Scott Thomas, The Other Boleyn Girl
17. Natalie Portman, The Other Boleyn Girl
18. Venessa Redgrave, Atonement
19. Toni Collette, Nothing Is Private
20. Twilda Swinton, Micheal Clayton

Vote Siphoners
21. Nicole Kidman, His Dark Materials:
22. Kiera Knightly, Silk
23. Marisa Thomey, Before the Devil Knows Your Dead
24. Mary Louise Parker, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
25. Natalie Portman, My Blueberry Nights

I'm back and I'm ready for buisness

Ok, i know its not like I left with much, but what I had hoped for back in Febuary, didnt pan out to be. When I originally started, I inspired this blog to elevate itself with time to the kind of site that gets great attention much like Nathaniel's The Film Experience, Andy's Everything Oscar or other various Oscar Blogs. With much ambition I begun .... and ended. I only posted seven post in the duration of a month and then nothing. Clearly anyone who thought that blogging a film site is easy... well their wrong (atleast to my opinion). So i honestly couldnt keep up with it, not with a huge course load, family troubles and a promotion at work. It took me a good two months to re organize myself, focus on the Oscar scene and here I am. Much will be added in the following weeks, some on the Oscars, some on films in general, and some on broader entertainment issues. For now here's my thoughts on the Supporting Actress race, thank you so much

STUDIO RUNDOWN 2007

Ladies and Gents, even if its only been a month since the end of the 2006-2007 Oscar season, it looks like we’re opening the doors wide open for the 2007 – 2008 Season. After a month of analogies, I’ve rendered the qualifiers by studio. Why? Because, separating them by camp makes it more easily to see which films will have sonority. Much like a general’s battleground, it is strategically planned name films “frontrunners” making them the main Eye Candy, where all pundits observe year round to see a slight triumph or critical failure. While all of this attention is fixated on the “frontrunners”, the surprise factor of the immense triumphant “low key” films, berried by studio exes, rings so loudly that it ends up being over hailed, making a bigger noise then expected (ex: The Departed). Here’s our first case study Columbia ….

COLUMBIA / SONY / SONY PICTURES CLASSICS

Columbia has awfully weak track Record. The Last Time that they got a Best Picture nom was in 2000 with Crouching Tiger (and co-distributing Erin Brockovich). Since then the studio has been dwindling what if failures like Running With Scissors, Spanglish, The White Countess, Closer (despite getting actings noms for Portman and Owen), etc. The failing studio has been, keeping in the game with the sole procession of Sony’s Classic Picture. The sub-division rose to fame in 2005, when it produced the Best Picture Nominee Capote (which ended up winning Philip Seymour Hoffman his Oscar).

The Big Dogs

The Other Boleyn Girl by Justin Chadwick (debut) Starring: Natalie Portman, Scarlett Johansson, Eric Bana, Krsiten Scott Thomas, Mark Pylance, Jim Sturgess [TBR: Late December] In the vein of the great period pieces such as Shakespeare In Love, The English Patient, etc, The Other Boleyn Girl seems to be more of the same, expecially since Golden Age, seems to be more promising. I’m kind of leaning towards a Goya’s Ghost redux here, don’t know why, but Columbia doesn’t have a good track record, and the fact it being the feature debut of director Chadwick, doesn’t reassure me. But here’s my biggest problem with the film, the match up of Portman and Johansson. See ever since The Island, Johansson went from best of generation to downright awful (ever he perf in Match Point was all over the place), I can’t stand her anymore, well I do love Portman, she’s (1) overrated and (2) I can see Scarlett stinking this up.

Vantage Point by Pete Travis (debut). Starring: Dennis Quaid, Sigourney Weaver, Matthew Fox, Forrest Whitaker, William Hurt, Zoe Saldana, [TBR: Otober] A smart looking political thriller that might considering the A list Cast become the heavy talking political drama of the season. Featuring 80’s Oscar heavyweights (Waver and Hurt), a newly Oscar crowned actor (Whitaker), up and comers (Fox and Saldana) and an actor in the wings (Quaid), the film is a roshomon esque tale that depicts the assassination tale. I’m really doubting, considering the fact that its writer and director are both making debuts and its from the producers of films like XXX2 and Not Another Teen Movie, it might becomes this years Capote or another bump in the road.

Wild Cards

Reign Over Me by Mike Binder (Upside of Anger) Starring: Adam Sandler, Don Cheadle, Jeda Pinkett Smith, Liv Tyler, Saffron Barrows, Donald Sutherland, Robert Klein, Melinda Dillon and Mike Binder [TBR: Late March] Another 9/11 related studio offering, this time leaving the day off telling, and focusing on the aftermath affect. Directed by Mike Binder, the film faces the same obstacles as his previous film Upside of Anger. The March release date is very unfavorable, especially the since the reviews aren’t revolutionary, but strong notices for Sandler and Cheadle, might serve them well. But we’ve gotten no indication that the Academy would go for Adam The Sap Sandler doing drama.

And When did you Last See Your Father by Pete Travis (Hillary & Jackie). Starring: Colin Firth, Jim Broadbent, Juliet Stevenson, Gina McKee [TBR: TBA] A Prestigious British piece, that revolves around the possibility of giving 2001 Supporting Actor winner Jim Broadbent a second coming. After making a name of himself, as one of the most consistent British actors, Colin Firth is looking at his first nomination playing Broadbent’s Son, if the role features great depth. This film is more of an acting film, then a dominant Best Picture contender.

Other films

Across the Universe Julie Taymor (Titus) 60’s Beatles themed Odyssey. [Oct]

The Waterhorse British Vet Watson stars, in a cute Irish Fantasy film. [Dec]

Perfect Strangers Willis & Berry Heat it up, in a sexy moneymaking thriller. [April]

21 Doesn’t sound that promising despite starring Spacey & Fishburn, but they haven’t been at the top of their game in years

Jane Austin Book Club An All star Cast worship the work of legendary author Jane Austin. Jindalbyne Gabriel Byrne and Laura Linney are getting raves for their work in this Aussie Indie. [April]

Spider – Man 3 The third chapter in Sony’s ever grossing top reigning comic book franchise. [May]

Oscar 2007 Recap

Who would have thought that this year’s Oscar ceremony would end up being so odd? Where I loved 90% of the winners, the was barely anything to be contempt with the dead beat ceremony. The idea of bringing popular daytime TV show host Ellen to broaden the audience numbers failed. Much like Woopi Goldberg and David Letterman, DeGeneress was the wrong person for this, she really doesn’t miggle well with the Hollywood crowd, she really did treat the cream de la cream of Hollywood, as ordinary audience members of her daytime talk show (come on pictures with Clint Eastwood … Gospel singers roaming threw the audiences). But on the other side, produces knew exactly what to do with special guests Jack Black, John C Reilly and Will Ferrell, presenters Al Gore and Leo DiCaprio, heck even the Meryl Streep tie-in was wonderful. The winners were surprisingly, refreshing, the voters woke up and realized that they don’t have to award Eddie Murphy, and picked the more deserving Alan Arkin, The Departed surprisingly keeping its momentum, Pan’s Labyrinth sweeping most of the tech awards, etc. Anyways Here are my categorized thoughts on this year’s awards:

Most Ironic Gesture of the Night Part 1: Having DeGeneress host, while 100 times funnier comics Black and Ferrell settle for a small sketch

Most Ironic Gesture of the Night Part 2: Proving that the Foreign Film category is a class of its own, after winning most of the tech categories Pan’s Labyrinth still loses to Lives of Others

Creative High jinx: Human acrobatics representing the year’s nominated films. I have no idea who got this idea or how, it might be the oddest thing ecver shown at the Oscars.

They’re Still Dreaming: I surprisingly loved the Dreamgirls number. Loved seeing non celebs Rose and Robinson gets there share of lime light. Congrats to the Academy, for well staging such a musical number.

Thanks for Ending the Annoying Trends: Cinephiles: By Awarding Scorsese his first Oscar we can end predicting everything Scorsese to sweep. Academy: Realizing that they don’t need to join the consensus by awarding Alan Arkin over Eddie Murphy.

Cheap Laughs: Leo Dicaprio and Al Gore joking on him announcing his run for Presidency. Fun yes, but come on, how unoriginal.

Best Speech: Alan Arkin

Worst Speech: Hudson, come on she’s so full of herself

Best Improved Speech: Whitaker, Not generally strong, but he atleast feels a bit heartfelt.
Don’t Let the Oscar Door Hit You on the Way Out: James Earl Haley, Jennifer Hudson, Abigail Breslin, Rinko Kickuchi, Peter O’Toole, Eddue Murphy, Forrest Whitaker, Helen Mirren

Come on back now you Hear: Kate Winslett, Leo DiCaprio, Meryl Streep, Ryan Gosling, Will Smith, Judi Dench, Penelope Cruz, Mark Wahlberg, Alan Arkin, Djimon Houson, Cate Blanchett

And that’s It, here’s for my Final Grade:

Host: C-
Winners: A-
Overall Night: C

Oscar Season 2007 - 2008 report comming soon