Oscar 2008 Predics

Best Picture

Atonement – Globes, BAFTA
Juno -- Satelite
No Country For Old Men – PGA, SAG, NBR, Broadcast, Satellites, Various Critical Awards
Michael Clayton
There Will Be Blood – Various Critical Awards

To call this a closed race is something of a understatement despite Atonement’s Globes upset and the fear of boredom settling into the race (but we’ll talk about that later). The category’s frontrunner, No Country For Old Men, has taken center stage ever since its Cannes Film Festival in May 2007. Helmed and penned by veteran independent filmmakers , Ethan and Joel Cohen, the film created a cultural firestorm, winning the vast majority of the season’s awards. The film seemed locked and loaded for the big win after taking home four major Guild awards – SAG, DGA, PGA, WAG --- the industries overall approval signifies the love and respect attributed towards the film. While this sudden leap ahead has solidified the film’s chances, most are in doubt, of a relentless need for a major upset. If we look at the 2005 Oscar Race, where hence Brokeback Mountain was an even greater frontrunner (which swept all awards with the exception of the SAG ensemble), lost to Crash which had the upset momentum. Mixed with this momentum is the studios relentless pursuit for the goal. Where hence in the past, heads would throw in the towel at the most opportune moment, everyone in the game is trying to pull an upset out of there hat. The foreseeable alternate, There Will Be Blood is riding the “Milkshake” phenomenon; Juno might have a chance, if the Academy wants to seem more relevant to youngsters; Michael Clayton and Atonement is exploiting the fact that its based on an old Oscar Seasoned genre (Clayton the old political thriller ala All the President’s Men; Atonement the old British prestige Merchant/Ivory Period Piece ala Howards End). Despite the need for an upset, its still very unlikely that No Country would loose. Perfectly shot by DP Roger Deakins, the film is a powerfully edited thrill ride that never lets go. Many movie goers are thrilled by the film, while film buffs are raving the Coen’s audacity in ending the films such an offbeat matter (its like they dropped the Ball twenty minutes before its finale). If any of the nominees have as much followers as No Country it’s Juno and There Will Be Blood, but I wouldn’t put my money on either films, generally because Blood is a very small film and Juno’s exposure overshadows the fact that there’s no precedent in its favour.

Who Will Win: No Country for Old Men
Who Should Win: There Will Be Blood
Who Should Have Been Nominates: Assasination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford

Best Director:

Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood – LA Film Critics, NY Online Film Critics, Various Critical Awards
Ethan and Joel Cohen, No Country for Old Men – DGA, Broadcast, BAFTA, Online Critics, NY Film Critics, Various Critical Awards
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Jason Reitman, Juno
Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and Butterfly – Globes, Cannes Film Fest, Kansas and Boston Critic awards

The race has come down to three ponies. The Coens Brothers, whose film No Country for Old Men is my Best Picture Predict, Diving Bell and Butterfly is Director Schnabel’s big breakthrough and There Will Be Blood is director’s Anderson’s career’s best. Its easy to discard Reitman (whose sole nomination purpose is to rise the count for Juno) and Gilroy (who has a long career ahead of him). Now, the three directors in play all face problems, most surprisingly, the Coens Brothers. They’re running in for categories – picture, director, screenplay and editing – but the difficulty is to see which one they will loose or will they win all four. The only precedent for a four time win in a single year, back in 1953, Walt Disney took home four Oscars for producing three short subjects winners and a documentary win. But I’m more inclined to them loosing editing (to Bourne Ultimatum) or Screenplay (to Diving Bell and Butterfly). To say that There Will Be Blood is Anderson’s best film especially after Boogie Nights and Magnolia, is a great feat. The film is to 2007 what American films like Boogie Nights, Chinatown, The Searchers and The Treasure of the Sierra Madre were to their own respective years. While Schnabel is the year’s breakthrough – despite directing the 2000 Oscar Nominated Before Night Fall – gaining the newcomer buzz, maintaining a very important win at the Globes. But lack of acclaim elsewhere might falter him.

Who Will Win: Ethan and Joel Cohen, No Country for Old Men
Who Should Win: TBD (Haven’t sceen
Who Should Have Been Nominated: David Fincher, Zodiac

Best Actor in a Leading Role

George Clooney, Michael Clayton – NBR, various critical Awards
Daniel Day Lewis, There Will Be Blood – Globes, SAG, BAFTA, Broadcast, National Society of Film Critics, NY Film Critics, LA Film Critics, Various Critical Awards
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd: The Devil barber of Flint Street -- GLOBES
Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah
Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises – British Independentm Satellites

Is there anyone out there thinking that Daniel Day-Lewis can loose Best Actor this year? Tom O’Neil is putting precursors to the test, picking under rewarded Clooney to upset. Clooney has the advantage of being the newly crowned king of Hollywood, the Era’s Frank Sanatra. Most importantly Clooney is downgrading his Hollywood persona, this work is more character actor, then Hollywood Superstar. Mortensen’s Nikolai is a career’s best, outdoing his work in History of Violence. This would be the opertune moment to award Mortensen, not only has he never been better, chances are he never will again. While I can’t denie that Clooney and Mortensen are both worthy, they don’t have the momentum or the performance aquivilant to Day-Lewis. Mortensen sole advantage over the two is the fact that he’s yet to be honoured, but he’s also yet to be previously nominated.

Who Will Win: Daniel Day Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Who Should Win: Daniel Day Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Sam Riley, Control and Ryan Gosling, Lars and the Real Girls

Best Actress:
Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: the Golden Age
Julie Christie, Away From Her – SAG, Globes, NBR, Broadcast, National Society of Film Critics, Online Film Critics, New York Film Critics, Various Film Critics
Marion Cortillard, La Vie En Rose – Globes, Hollywood Award, Satelites, LA Film Critics, BAFTA, Kansas and Boston Film Critics
Laura Linney, The Savages
Ellen Page, Juno – Satellites, Various Film Critics

Once again we’re dealing with a three pony race. Hollywood veteran and Oscar Winner (for her performance in 1965’s Darling) Julie Christie gives a brilliantly subtle portrait of Alzeimers in Sarah Polley’s Away From Her. French newcomer Marion Cortillard make a uncanny Edith Piaf in the biopic La Vie en Rose. She escapes mimicry, by transcending into the heart and strugglers of Piaf While Canuck native Ellen Page gave a very attractive performance as teenage misfit and self titled Huno. I’m no fan of the film’s screenplay, its terribly overwritten, and it depicts Juno as a cruel Selfish and irritating teenager. Throughout the season Hollywood has been open arms towards Christie, a former 60s sex pot, whose comeback has been appreciated by most film lovers and biz insiders. Her first nomination in a decade (1997’s Afterglow), the actress has been out of sight with the exception of epics Troy and Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Askaban and Oscar Pony Finding Neverland. Despite it being one of the most loaded races of the night, I put my money on Christie. Yes Cortillard performance is miraculous and the she does fit both molds, that of actors playing real life figures and that of the Academy rewarding young pretty things. But she’s not getting as much attention in America compared to her attention in Europe. While Page on the other side has a whole career ahead of her, and I doubt that anyone would have the need to vote for her so early in her career.

Who Will Win: Julie Christie, Away From Her
Who Should Win: TBD (Haven’t scene The Savages)
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Nicole Kidman, Margo and the Wedding

Best Supporting Actor
Cassey Affleck, The Assasination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford – NBR, Satelites, National Society of Film Critics, Critic Awards
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men – SAG, Globes, Broadcast, Bafta, New York Film Critics, LA Film Critics, a Shitload of critical awards
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson’s War –
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton – Satellite

This race is simple, Bardem for the Gold. There’s no need for analysis, he won all major procurers and his Anton Chigurch is one of the most menacing villains in the history of cinema. Yes Wilkinson has the Michael Clayton love and Hallbrook is an endearing Hollywood veteran, but neither have a snowball in hell chance of winning. This might be the nights easiest bet.

Who Will Win: Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Who Should Win: Cassey Affleck, Assasination of Jesse James
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Steve Zahn, Rescue Dawn

Best Supporting Actress

Cate Blanchett, I’m Not There – Globes, Venice Film Fest, Various Critical Awards
Ruby Dee, American Gangster – SAG,
Saoirse Ronan, Atonement
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone – NBR, Broadcast, Online Film Crix, New York Film Critics, L.A. Film Critics, Various other Critic Awards
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton – BAFTA, Various other Critic Awards

The most mind boggling and most exciting race of the night. Pre ordained year in advance buzz helped Cate Blanchett’s variation of cult signer Bob Dylan in Todd Haynes’s I’m Not There. The most precise of the Dylan performers, Blanchett continues what is to date of the most impressive careers of contemporary cinema. Tilda Swinton achieves so much with so little screen time in Tony Gilroy’s Michael Clayton. Better known for her board meeting rehearsal scenes, Swinton puts much depth and spin to a could have been predictable villainous role. Rudy Dee is this year glorified cameo role player as Denzel’s mom in American Gangster. If Dee ends up winning its solely based on her endearing career. With a career that last over sixty years, and married to the late Ossie Davis (one of the most patriotic of the African American movement), Dee is way overdue for some career recognition. Ryan seems more or less ordained to become the typical critical darling that fails for no apparent reason. Ronan seems to have the same problem as Page, despite the Academy’s history of awarding child actors in this category. That being said, we’re now left with four active contenders. Blanchett with the year in advance buzz, Dee with the career recognition factor, Swinton seems to be the ideal way of awarding Michael Clayton and Ryan as the critical darling. That being said I’m favoring Dee who ever since her win at the Screen Actors Guild Awards has had a momentum of buzz


Who Will Win: Ruby Dee, American Gangsters
Who Should Win: Saorise Ronan, Atonement
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Charlotte Gunsburgh, I’m Not There
Best Original Screenplay: Diablo Cody, Juno
Best Adaptive Screenplay: Ronald Harwood, The Diving Bell and Butterfly
Animated Film: Ratatouille
Art Direction: Sweeney Todd
Cinematography: There Will Be Blood
Costume Design: Atonement
Documentary Feature: No End in Sight
Documentary Short: Sari’s Mother
Film Editing: Bourne Ultimatum
Foreign Film: The Counterfeiters
Makeup: La Vie En Rose
Original Score : Atonement
Original Song : « Falling Slowly » Once
Short Film Animated: Peter and the Wolf
Short Film live Action: Le Mozart des Pickpockets
Sound Editing: No Country for Old Men
Sound Mixing: The Bourne Ultimatum
Visual Effects: Transformers